Has Anyone Read "A Template For Understanding Big Debt Crisis"?


#1

I noticed the other week that Dalio has put out another book:

A Template For Understanding Big Debt Crisis

Anyone given it a read?


#2

I have not. But I think Dalio’s ideas on debt are interesting. If I remember correctly, here are a few of things he’s been saying recently:

  • We are in a similar period to 1935-1940 period. Governments in early 1930s, bought bonds to save the financial system. This benefitted wealth owners and created extreme inequality. This lead to fascism.

  • Debt levels are very extreme.

  • The next crisis will be political and not necessarily financial. Or at least, it will turn political…


#3

I have not read Dalio’s new book.

But…

Dalio is an interesting character…

  • He acts like he’s just a down-to-earth, hippy-ish guy:

  • Everything that he actually does suggests he sees himself as a master of the universe:

He often makes sweeping statements about where the market is going (as if they are fact):

If you’re holding cash, you’re going to feel pretty stupid

The next financial crisis ‘will be more severe’ socially and politically

‘We Have Two Years Left’ in Current Market Cycle [Paraphrased]

I can’t think of any investor who has consistently gotten it right. So… you have to be fairly bold to be going on CNBC and making these claims…

Dalio has interesting things to say for sure. I am excited to hear what he says in the new book as well. Still, I can’t help but think that his public persona is just PR… and that he does seem himself as an Ubermensch of sorts.

And there’s nothing wrong with that.

Just don’t try to dress it up as something else!

TD;DR - Book looks interesting, not sold on Dalio!


#4

Was reading it today…

It’s interesting, but a very very demanding read. For example, it has very detailed case studies of Weimar Republic’s economy and the other two big American debt crisis…

Its probably a great read if you are a central banker or policy maker, but not so great if you are want to read something chill!